Pakistan has been through one of the toughest times in its history since its inception. The devastating floods that have swamped over one-third of Pakistan have received wide media coverage globally. Flooding in Pakistan has killed at least 1,400 people and caused more than $30 billion in damage since June 2022.
Climate experts claim that Pakistan's crisis was entirely predictable. One year ago, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Climate Change, a study conducted by the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence, published an influential report highlighting climate change's security challenges around the world. Pakistan, a nuclear power, was identified as one of eleven "highly vulnerable countries of concern," and flooding was identified as a security risk in Pakistan by the NIE.
The Global Climate Risk Index, an annual independent study conducted by Germanwatch, concurred with the NIE's assessment, ranking Pakistan eighth in terms of long-term climate risk.At the beginning of summer this year, the country sweltered with extreme heat waves in the months of June, July, and August. It impacted the livelihood and crop production of the nation at an alarming rate, burning the orchards and killing crops due to the vast amount of heat in the environment.
The country was only recovering from the climatic wrath, when it got flooded everywhere, drowning homes, and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Leaving affected people to take shelter in tents and camps, and hoping for better days to see. The citizens, across classes and positions, have been affected one way or another. There has been an acute scarcity of food, clean drinking water, and basic living amenities.
In order to get a clearer picture of the calamity, it is imperative to shed some light on the causes, damage, and possible reparations to deal with the loss of the disaster.
Causes
The increased global warming over the years has caused the melting of glaciers in the Northern Alps and brought a dangerous rise in sea level everywhere flowing down south. This, in turn, gives air to La Nina and subsequently lets the air move eastwards. When this reaches the eastern part of the globe, it gets caught up in the mountains and forms a hot air dome that holds hot air moisture for a very long time eventually causing heavy rainfalls to an extent of flooding the rivers and water bodies in the region.
The sweltering heat at the start of the year came from the culmination of various weather events over a period of time caused due to increased carbon emissions, pollution, and deforestation. The heat wave had far-reaching consequences. The hot weather increased dust and ozone levels, causing air pollution spikes in major cities throughout the region. As it is known, a heat wave is a phenomenon that generally starts with La Nina in the Pacific Ocean causing a roundabout effect, but in this case, extreme heat waves across South Asia were witnessed this year. This whole phenomenon increased moisture in the air, causing flash floods in Pakistan.
Nevertheless, it would be inappropriate to say that such a disaster could have been caused by climate change elements alone. Disasters as such, are a result of human-induced effects that create loopholes in climate health, deforestation, poor infrastructure, and construction of dams could be some of the other important causes.
Damage
Floods this year have been the deadliest after the 2017 South Asian Floods. The numbers that have been affected are terrifying. Though the major damage that has been recorded late in Pakistan has been in the Sindh and Balochistan region, there is much more that has to come to light. Around 1400 people including 530 children have died, and nearly 12,749 have been injured since June. There has been an estimated 30 billion US dollars worth of damage to infrastructure and property all around the country, The Guardian has claimed. In addition to these numbers, hundreds of thousands of people are bound to be homeless. Approximately 546,288 people are living in camps and tents now. These people include women, children, newborn babies, pregnant women, and many others with severe illnesses. The count for loss of livestock and cattle is still unknown. The floods did not just wash away properties and infrastructure, but also swept away the dreams, expectations, opportunities, and hopes of people. The people living in camps are uncertain of when and where will they be able to make their homes now, and if they do, how will they do it.
Reparation
While it is true that despite warnings from agencies and studies, Pakistan did not do enough to prepare for the possibility of heavy floods, one must consider the limitations that come with being a developing country.
It is widely believed that climate change is one of the major causes of the Pakistan floods. In such a case, issues of liability and climate justice emerge. It must be noted that as a nation, Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions but is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Compare that to the US which historically has been responsible for 20% of the world’s carbon emissions, or the UK, Belgium, Germany, Canada, and Russia which are among the top 10 nations with the highest historical emissions per capita.Looking at the data, there seems to be a clear incongruity between the countries most responsible for climate change and those that are most likely to be affected by it. In such a scenario, the idea of justice is challenged. Hence, it becomes essential to address the issue of justice and liability by the concept of ‘loss and damage’.
Should the developed countries that have been the highest emitters historically be the ones who should be held liable for the damage and devastation caused in the developing countries such as the ones in the Pacific Islands, Philippines, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc.? And in that case, maybe they should be the ones who should be expected to pay reparations for the damage caused in these countries.And while there can be legitimate concerns regarding the possibility of such funds being funneled into terror financing or nuclear proliferation in the specific case of Pakistan, nevertheless stringent mechanisms can be established for ensuring that absolute transparency is maintained regarding the spending.
The developed countries have been of course unwilling to even consider the issue of ‘loss & damage’ or reparations as was seen in the last climate conference at Bonn, however, the conversation must begin somewhere. It remains to be seen if the upcoming COP27 in November would finally be a platform where the issue of loss and damage is given due attention.
Saroj has an experience of over 9 years working in the development sector as a social worker, educator and an independent researcher. She has worked extensively with the marginalized community in India and Nepal. She is an avid reader and takes a profound interest in writing, preferably human stories.
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