India’s status of containing global warming at 1.5 degree Celsius

The challenge to maintain global warming below 1.5°C has reached a point of “now or never”. A study report issued by IPCC working Group III claimed that nations worldwide need to take all required measures to bring down the greenhouse gas emissions so as to limit global warming.

The report further mentioned that emissions worldwide could be halved by the year 2030, by bringing in the major transitions in the energy industry, especially by substantially reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.

What is 1.5°C and why is it crucial?

The need to constrain global warming at 1.5°C has always been emphasized by environmentalists and scientists in climate reports and summits.

The global average temperature of the earth’s surface has seen an increment of about 1.1°C since 1850. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, asked nations to limit the average temperature to way below 2°C, and aim at 1.5°C. Crossing this temperature threshold, risks far more climatic change consequences on human life, wildlife, as well as on ecosystems.

Can India keep the 1.5°C target?

While some environmentalists and climate scientists are positive, majority of them hold a belief that the target is slipping out of reach even faster than we could imagine.

After the release of the first part of the IPCC report, in August 2021, the climate activists, and the lead authors of the report stated that rapid and large scale reductions of all greenhouse gases could still prove to be effective in limiting global warming to 1.5°C. If not, with current emission rate, 1.5°C target will be exceeded by 2026.

What is required to be done to achieve the goal?

According to a climate report published in April 2022, to achieve the 1.5°C target, the world must by any means, bring down the annual C0₂ emissions by 48% before or latest by 2030, and further attempt should be made to reach net-zero by 2050. As far as methane emissions are concerned, it should be reduced by one-third till 2030, and attempt should be made in the direction to half the emissions by 2050. Greenhouse gas emission reductions were required to peak “at the latest” by the year 2025, only if the world wanted to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C or below from pre-industrial period.

How far have we reached in achieving the target?

Climate actions are being undertaken by several nations. Different policies, regulations as well as market instruments are being adapted, and they are proving out to be effective. Scaling up and applying these measures more widely and equitably, deep emission reductions and innovations can be stimulated and supported.

Among the world’s biggest economies, the US, EU and the UK are emerging as major leaders in the race for reducing the emission. The UK has committed to cut down the emissions at a faster pace as compared to the other developed countries. It has aimed a target of 68% reduction by 2030.

India being the third largest emitter of CO₂ after China and US, has laid a target to achieve net-zero emissions latest by the year 2070. India’s net-zero target is a constituent of ‘Panchamrit’ or ‘five elixirs’ strategy. Out of these ‘five elixirs’ four are maintained as short term goals, that could provide and promote ways towards achieving net-zero targets by 2070.

Till 2020, India was doing well towards meeting its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In its third biennial update report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India stated that it was successful in reducing its GDP emissions by around 24% during 2005-16. The nations’ per capita emissions too remained low at around 1.94 tonnes CO₂ per capita.

Renewable Energy options namely solar, wind and biomass power estimated for over 24% of total installed electricity capacity till July 2020. Considering the large hydropower plants and nuclear projects, India’s non-fossil fuels in total was around 38% of the nation's installed capacity. This accounts for approximately as much as it’s NDC under Paris Agreement. Although, India’s forest area and tree cover had seen an increment of 5188 Km², the carbon sink yield has increased just by 42.6 Mt. The carbon sink increase as committed by India in Paris Agreement was around 680-817 Mt.

A flipside to nation’s achievement till date is that NDCs themselves do not seem to be ambitious enough. This comes from the fact that, a report issued by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), rated India’s electricity target as “critically insufficient,” that came from non-fossil fuels. In addition, India’s emissions intensity target as stated in the report was “highly insufficient”. This rating leaves a major scope for improvement if India wants to be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C target under Paris Agreement.

Nonetheless, India’s updated target under COP 26 will revise the recent timeline and need some bold steps in the direction to maintain the momentum it earlier had. Moreover, the government at the centre as well as at the state level will need to reconsider a number of policies and measures that are counterintuitive to its renewed commitments.

The coming years would be our “make or break opportunity” in order to avoid the major ill-effects of climate change, and promote the world towards a net-zero future. According to the latest reports from the IPCC, we can even now limit global warming to 1.5°C only, if rapid and far-reaching transformations are practiced in every sector, be it power, buildings, industry, transport, agriculture , land use or coastal zone management.

We are at cross-roads, since the decisions we take now, can either secure us a livable future or take the world to a more disastrous, and extreme climate change condition. How far India and the world could maintain short term emission reductions, and ambitious long-term climate action plans is a fact that remains to be seen.