Recent heavy rainfall in northern parts of India, particularly Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Haryana, has been attributed to the interaction between a western disturbance and the monsoon trough. This weather phenomenon has caused torrential downpours, leading to landslides, flash floods, and extensive damage to infrastructure. After experiencing a 10% rainfall deficiency until the end of June, the surge in monsoon activity over the west coast and parts of northern India has resulted in a 2% excess rainfall for the entire country as of July 9, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Notably, northwest India has witnessed a significant 59% excess rainfall, while central India has experienced a 4% surplus. However, peninsular India faces a 23% rainfall deficiency, and the eastern and northeastern regions exhibit a 17% deficiency. Over the weekend, record-breaking rainfall was observed in various locations, including Chandigarh, Ambala, Delhi, Nangal, and Ropar, resulting in severe flooding. Himachal Pradesh recorded exceptionally high levels of rainfall, with Bhuntar experiencing 1,193% excess rainfall and Punjab witnessing 1,151% excess rainfall.The heavy rainfall is a result of the interaction between the western disturbance and the monsoon system, as explained by M Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD. He further stated that this interaction has caused heavy to very heavy rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, north Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand. The IMD's earlier predictions of good rainfall in July have been realized, significantly reducing the rainfall deficit. However, rainfall is expected to gradually decrease in the affected states in the coming days.
Climate scientists emphasize that these intense rainfall events and flash floods highlight the impacts of climate change on the monsoon. They attribute the heavy rains in hilly areas, such as the Himalayan foothills and the Western Ghats, to global warming, which increases moisture content. As a result, the hills act as barriers, lifting the moisture and causing heavy rainfall. These regions experiencing extreme rainfall are prone to orographic lifting, wherein the topography influences precipitation patterns. While predicting flash floods and intense rainfall remains challenging, experts emphasize the need for close monitoring and identification of areas prone to such events. The use of radar systems and monitoring land-use changes can aid in forecasting and mitigating the impacts of flash floods. The forecast for the upcoming days indicates light to moderate rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in the Western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and other adjoining areas.
In conclusion, the recent heavy rainfall in northern India can be attributed to the interaction between a western disturbance and the monsoon system. While it has bridged the rainfall deficit, it has also caused significant challenges, including landslides and flash floods. The increasing occurrence of extreme rainfall events underscores the influence of climate change on the monsoon and the need for improved forecasting and mitigation strategies to minimize the impact on vulnerable regions.
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