The combined effects of global warming and ongoing El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific are driving increased temperatures in numerous northern hemisphere regions, indicating the possibility of an early and severe heatwave. Rising temperatures have already been reported in parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, Central America, Europe, and Asia, with some places suffering heatwaves.
According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), daily maximum temperatures in southern India, particularly western and central Maharashtra, Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh, and northern Karnataka, are 4-8 degrees Celsius over average. In contrast, temperatures in north India are below average, with coldwaves in some parts.
On February 11, northwest India, including Uttarakhand, Punjab, sections of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, northern Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh, saw minimum temperatures 5°C-6°C below usual. Meanwhile, southern India has experienced substantially higher temperatures than usual since the first week of February.
Heatwaves will have an effect on agricultural output in mountainous regions such as Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir in 2022 and 2023, in line with a pattern observed in prior years. The continuing El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which are predicted to last until April, raise the possibility of further temperature increases in India and other northern hemisphere locations. The impact of western disturbances in reducing temperatures remains unknown, underlining the difficulties of forecasting weather patterns in the future months.
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