At the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) in November 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a slew of targets that drew global attention and applause. The ambitious and bold targets sent a message: India is serious about taking climate action and limiting the rising global temperatures. As almost a year has passed since then, it is only apt to discuss whether India has identified challenges and opportunities in achieving those targets, which were presented as ‘five elixirs’ or panchamrit for limiting rising temperatures.
Commitment 1: India will increase its non-fossil capacity to 500GW by 2030.
While India had pledged establishing 500GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 during the COP26, the government did not incorporate this in the updated climate pledge to the Paris Agreement, which was approved by the Union Cabinet on August 3, 2022.
What could explain this climbdown? According to experts, India wanted to keep other options open in case renewables are not enough to meet excess demand. Moreover, achieving 500GW non-fossil fuel electricity capacity target for 2030 doesn’t look easy, considering the present situation. Out of the 403GW installed capacity, non-fossil fuels make up only 167 GW, which means India must add 300% more installed capacity from non-fossil sources in less than eight years to get to 500 GW installed capacity by 2030.
In terms of financing, the road is quite challenging. According to a new report by BloombergNEF, India will need investment to the tune of $223 billion in the next eight years to meet its goal of wind and solar capacity installations by 2030. The report, however, hopes that commitments from large corporations could help India achieve over 80 per cent of its 500GW target.
Commitment 2: India will meet 50% of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030.
There has been a notable change in India’s COP26 commitment. India will now work towards achieving 50 per cent of its installed power capacity from non-fossil sources (including nuclear, biomass, ethanol, etc.) and not just from renewable energy sources like solar and wind, as promised last year. The revised target doesn’t look ambitious as India’s installed power capacity from non-fossil sources already stands at 41.5 per cent (as of June 2022).
According to the Central Electricity Authority’s estimate, the installed capacity from non-fossil fuels will increase to 62 per cent by 2030. However, the target of increasing installed electricity generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources from 41.5% to 50% is not without challenges.
The electricity distribution companies are under a pile of debt. As of April 2022, they owe $2.5 billion to renewable power generators. Adding to that are the existing bureaucratic hurdles in acquiring large tracts of land for setting up grid-level solar and wind generation projects. Different municipal laws have already created barriers in installation of rooftop solar, which is significantly behind its installation target.
Commitment 3: India will reduce at least one billion tonnes of total projected emissions between now and 2030.
This is another Glasgow commitment that did not find a mention in the government’s official targets. Even if India had gone ahead with this pledge, it wouldn’t have made much of a difference to India’s emissions scenario. India’s annual greenhouse emission is expected to rise above 4 billion tonnes by 2030, far higher than 3.3 billion tonnes in 2018. This means, India‘s absolute emissions between now and 2030 could be between 35 and 40 billion tonnes. Cutting down 1 billion tonnes would mean a reduction of only 2.5 to 3 per cent in its absolute emissions in the next eight years.
Although India hasn’t committed to this reduction to the UNFCC, some efforts towards this direction are evident. The Indian Railways, for example, is expected to reduce its emissions by 60 million tonnes annually by 2030. Similarly, every year, India is reportedly reducing emissions by 40 million tonnes, thanks to the LED bulb campaign. There are also reports of fossil fuel-based companies such as the NTPC and Tata Power developing plans for deploying clean energy and reducing emissions intensity by 17 and 20 per cent, respectively, by 2030.
A new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), however, recommends more “robust decarbonisation plans” that align with net zero targets, which, will be crucial for “mobilising this rising tide of sustainable finance.” According to the report, India’s industries will need to adopt more ambitious emissions reduction targets to attract green investors and raise capital to achieve these targets.
Commitment 4: India will reduce the country’s carbon intensity to less than 45% by 2030.
Carbon intensity of an economy is measured in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of GDP. It depends on the fuel mix and energy intensity (amount of energy used to produce a certain output). According to several reports, CO2 emissions of different sectors of India’s economy have been on decline in the last three decades, and India already achieved 25 per cent of emission intensity reduction between 2005-2016.
While reaching the 45% target by 2030 doesn’t look an intimidating task, India still needs to enhance its efforts towards reducing emissions from the energy-intensive sectors: transport and industries, cement, iron and steel, and chemicals. It must continue supporting electrification of public transport and improve thermal efficiency of our housing.
Commitment 5: India will achieve net zero emissions target by 2070.
Net zero emission is a scenario wherein a country does not add to the overall amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Experts have been proposing several pathways to achieve this target: incentivising transition to cleaner coal technology and its domestic production, leveraging carbon capture technologies, promoting green hydrogen through demand-side incentives, and creating carbon markets. Some measures have been taken so far.
India recently passed the Energy Conservation (Amendment) Bill, 2022, which provides for the establishment of carbon credit markets—a trading system that makes reduction of emissions a tradeable asset. Units that reduce their emission limits gain credits, and those who exceed can buy credits. The Bill also mandates use of non-fossil sources (including green hydrogen, green ammonia, biomass, and ethanol) for energy and feedstock, and brings large residential buildings under the energy conservation regime.
On a similar note, India will soon launch Green Hydrogen Mission, which will identify and list out sectors that will have to start using green hydrogen voluntarily and create a roadmap for certain industries (especially fertilisers and petrochemicals) to use it mandatorily. In fact, India has set a target of producing 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030. Over the next decade, the government plans to add 175 GW of green hydrogen-based energy. A few industrialists have already announced mega green hydrogen projects to decarbonize their businesses.
India has made its intentions clear with the updated emissions reduction targets, and it is now up to different stakeholders—both domestic and international—to rally behind this mission.
A communications professional with 15+ years of cumulative experience in journalism and communications, envisioning and creating digital content, and designing and spearheading communication strategy for both nonprofits and corporations. Subhojit holds a Master’s Degree in English, with an inclination for anything literary! He has 15+ years of experience in journalism and communications, designing and spearheading communication strategy for both nonprofits and corporations. He is fond of traveling, reviewing books and plays, and watching parallel films.
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