IPCC report on climate change

The current report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on 28th February 2022, has warned of multiple disasters in the next twenty years even if necessary actions are implemented for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The latest warnings have come in the second part of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report which talks about climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities, and adaption options. The first part of the report was released earlier in August 2021. That report centered on the scientific basis of climate change. The third and final part of the report which is expected to be released this year in April will look into the possibilities of reducing emissions. 

Climate change has affected agricultural production, and droughts have been a major driver of food insecurity.

Rising emissions will lead to India’s experiencing intolerable heat conditions which the report referred to as ‘wet-bulb temperatures’ – a measure that combines heat and humidity. Currently, a wet-bulb temperature in India rarely exceeds 31°C with most of the states experiencing maximum wet-bulb temperatures of 25-30°C according to the report. 

Owing to the fact, that around 3.5 billion people, over 45% of the global population, are living in areas extremely vulnerable to climate change, the report indicates India as one of the vulnerable hotspots, with several regions and major cities facing a high risk of climate disasters such as flooding, sea-level rise and heatwaves.

Listed below is the compilation of the IPCC report specifying the climate change impacts on India.

Consequences of sea-level rise on coastal areas

India stands among one of the most vulnerable countries around the globe to sea-level rise, which could result in submergence of more land, regular flooding, soil erosion, or land becoming unsuitable for cultivation due to soil salinity.

According to the report, by the middle of this century, approximately 3.5 crores Indian population could face annual coastal flooding, and around 4 to 5 crore are at extreme risk by the end of the century if emissions continue at the same rate.

Health could be a growing concern  

There’s a particular risk that altering climatic conditions could ease the spread of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever to billions more by the end of this century. 

Also for the very first time, the report stated about the physical and mental impacts that climate change could bring about, including the stress and trauma as a result of extreme weather events and loss of livelihoods.

Threats caused to species

The report stated that around 14% of the species assessed are likely to face a very high risk of extinction if the world warms by 1.5°C, which could rise up to 29% of the species at 3°C of warming.

For the species living in areas that come under vulnerable biodiversity hotspots, the extremely high extinction risk is estimated to double as warming rises towards 2°C and could go up to ten folds if the global temperature goes up to 3°C. 

Reduction in labor capacity

The report indicated that heat will reduce labor capacity, especially in agriculture. India’s agricultural labor capacity is estimated to fall by 17% if the warming continues to 3°C – just a bit more than the currently planned emissions would lead to – or 11% if emissions cuts are accelerated.

Serious economic damage

According to a study cited by the IPCC report, the Indian economy is affected to a large extent by climate change, with every tonne of CO2 globally costing the country around $86. Since 1991, India’s GDP per capita has already been 16% lower than it would have been without human-caused warming, the report said. If the current warming rate continues, then by 2100, the country’s average income could be 92% lower than what it would have been without climate change.

Shortage of water

The altering climate, coupled with rising demand, could mean that about 40% of the people in India will live with water scarcity by 2050, in comparison to 33% of the current population, according to a cited report. 

But on the other side of the coin, India’s two major rivers, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra river basins are likely to see enhanced flooding as a consequence of climate change, especially if warming exceeds 1.5°C.

Adverse effect on the fishery industry

Continuous climate change is also seen to affect India’s fisheries. Key commercial species such as hilsa, shad, Bombay duck are projected to face a potential decline if the temperature continues to rise at the current rate.

The energy harnessed by aquatic plants and micro-algae, essential for strong fisheries, has already faced a decline of 20% in the past six decades in the western Indian Ocean, due to climate change reducing the nutrient mixing between ocean levels.

Food insecurity

According to a new assessment report of IPCC, Climate and drought have been observed as the major drivers of food insecurity. The report further added that although there has been a rise in overall agricultural productivity, climate change has globally slowed this growth over the past 50 years.

In India, rice production may decline by 30 % instead of 10% of global warming over pre-industrial levels, rising to 4°C from 1°C and maize production will decrease 70% instead of 25% in this scenario.

The summary for policymakers focuses much on “climate-resilient development,” which it says could help in building the strength to cope with climate change globally.