The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that India may experience decreased rainfall conditions this year due to a potential El Nino event. The warming effect of El Nino, combined with greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to contribute to erratic rainfall patterns. The WMO advises Indian farmers not to wait for the official declaration of an El Nino but to proactively adapt to the possibility. El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise by 0.5 degrees Celsius or more in the Nino 3.4 region. Forecasts indicate the likelihood of an El Nino, which could exacerbate the flood-drought cycle already observed in the country.
Furthermore, climate change has caused changes in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, expanding its impact regions and intensifying rainfall due to global warming. The El Nino warming will add to the overall heating effect caused by greenhouse gas emissions. La Nina events, which previously provided temporary cooling, have become warmer over the past few decades, failing to slow down global temperature rise significantly.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet declared the occurrence of an El Nino, but it anticipates its arrival, which is crucial for the current monsoon season. In El Nino years, the monsoon season tends to be shorter and weaker than usual, often resulting in droughts. The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already declared an El Nino with a 56% chance of a strong event at its peak, indicating a 84% chance of a moderate El Nino. NOAA declares El Nino events when it expects the warming to persist for several months, accompanied by atmospheric changes such as increased rainfall over the central Pacific Ocean and decreased rainfall over Indonesia. El Nino events are categorized as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on sea surface temperature increases.
While the monsoon season in India has recently picked up pace with considerable intensity, prior to that, it had been sluggish, leading to heatwaves in central and eastern regions of the country. Given the potential impact of El Nino on the monsoon season, Indian farmers are encouraged to prepare for the consequences, irrespective of an official declaration. Taking proactive measures to adapt to the possibility of decreased rainfall is crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management.
In conclusion, Indian farmers should be prepared for decreased rainfall conditions due to a potential El Nino event this year. The WMO advises them not to wait for an official declaration but to take proactive steps to adapt to the situation. With forecasts indicating the likelihood of an El Nino, farmers need to consider the potential exacerbation of the flood-drought cycle in the country. Moreover, climate change has caused changes in the ENSO phenomenon, expanding its impact regions and intensifying rainfall due to global warming. By preparing for the consequences and implementing appropriate measures, farmers can mitigate the risks associated with decreased rainfall and ensure better agricultural outcomes.
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