How will climate change impact solar, wind power generation?

India has its eyes on the target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2070. While it is mindful of the need for developing new technologies such as carbon capture, hydrogen use, etc. it is equally focused on increasing the share of renewable energy in its energy mix (various energy sources used to generate electricity). It aims at increasing renewable energy capacity from 157GW (as of March 2022) to 500GW by 2030, out of which 450 GW from solar and wind.

The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified solar power generation as having the greatest single impact in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) production. “The global technical potential of direct solar energy far exceeds that of any other renewable energy resource,” the report said. Moreover, the growth of solar PV in India has been exponential. Thanks to policy support and reduction in technology cost, it’s now the most cost-effective option for new power generation.

India optimistic about boosting renewable energy capacity, but… 

While India is confident about achieving the target of 500GW renewable energy capacity before 2030, there is a need for cautious optimism. According to a recent study, climate change is expected to impact future renewable energy production, with both solar radiation and wind speed estimated to decrease over the next 50 years. Co-authored by researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University, the study establishes how even small changes in atmospheric conditions due to climate change can affect renewable energy production. 

What does it mean for India? Let’s understand. 

The possible impact of climate change on solar power generation 

Evaluating projected changes in solar energy potential over the Indian subcontinent using various climate models, the study sends out a clear message: solar radiation or production will decrease over most of the active solar farming regions, especially north-western India, where the maximum number of solar farms are located. This shift in the frequency of solar radiation in a negative direction can be attributed to an increase in total cloud cover.

These findings echo another research, which suggested an overall decrease in solar radiation and an increase in the number of cloudy days, possibly because of higher surface temperatures, and the resulting increase in the amount of moisture, aerosols, and particulates in the atmosphere. For India, this decline in solar radiation will be more pronounced during monsoon months as analysis suggests higher cloud cover during these months. 

Except for pre-monsoon months, north-western India could possibly experience reduced solar radiation throughout the year. Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are the only regions that do not follow the trend. They are likely to see an increase in solar radiation. The study recommends considering central and south-central India for future investments in the solar power sector, as potential loss is minimum in these regions during pre-monsoon months.

The possible impact of climate change on wind power generation 

With a total installed wind power capacity of 40.788 GW (as of July 1, 2022), India has the fourth largest installed wind power capacity in the world. Moreover, a recent assessment suggested that by 2050, just two states—Tamil Nadu (35GW) and Gujarat (36GW)—have the potential to generate 71GW of offshore wind energy (wind turbines are installed in the sea and not on land). This is more than half of the total projected wind energy capacity (140GW) of India by 2050. However, there is a possibility of climate change putting brakes on this growth.

The study indicates climate change causes a sudden change in wind velocity and/or direction over a short distance, which can significantly alter energy production in existing wind fields. Analysis from all the models suggests lower or equal wind speeds in monsoon months when compared to the corresponding period in previous decades. Remember, India depends on the southwest monsoon for much of its wind energy production.

If we look at the regional analysis of wind potential, it becomes clear that the frequency of high energy-producing wind speeds will decrease, whereas low energy-producing wind speeds are likely to increase in the future. There is growing evidence of this phenomenon already happening, globally. According to the most recent IPCC report, global means land wind speed (excluding Australia) reduced by 0.063m per second every decade from 1979 to 2018. 

However, it is not all bad news. The southern coast of Odisha and the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu show promising potential for wind energy in a climate change scenario. In fact, seasonal analysis indicates that the southern and north-western regions are expected to have higher wind speeds in winter and monsoon months when the wind potential is maximum. 

One of the ways to mitigate the possible losses could be to install more wind farms along southern, south-eastern and north-western India, which will be more beneficial compared to those in other regions. Using highly efficient power generators that can generate electricity even with lesser wind speed, is another way of addressing this.