Monsoon 2023 is on the verge of a crucial break, as predicted by the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Forecast System. This hiatus in the monsoon may bring much-needed rain to the eastern regions of India, particularly vital for Kharif paddy production.
The monsoon season commenced on June 8, 2023, later than usual but quickly covering the entire country within 25 days, 20 days ahead of schedule. According to Akshay Deoras, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, UK, this break from the active phase is a normal phenomenon. The shift of the monsoon trough northward enhances rainfall along the Himalayan foothills and parts of eastern India while suppressing rainfall in other regions.Presently, around 232 districts, mainly concentrated in eastern India, have reported deficient to large deficient rainfall, despite the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) categorizing the overall monsoon as normal with seven percent excess rainfall compared to the long-term average.
For rice production, which is crucial for Kharif crops in the Indo-Gangetic region, the most critical stage is the reproduction stage. Debashish Jena, an agromet scientist with the National Rice Research Institute, expressed caution as the August forecast from IMD is pending. The upcoming rains may play a significant role during the reproduction stage, providing essential water depth for the rice fields in West Bengal and Odisha.However, many farmers in the Indo-Gangetic plains have already suffered heavy losses due to disrupted early sowing in June, leading to a lack of sprouts or shoots for transplanting. In response, the IMD advised farmers to switch to short-duration paddy varieties maturing in 125 days instead of the usual 180 days.
Despite the challenges, the sowing area for rice has increased by four percent compared to the previous year, as reported by Crop Weather Watch until July 24, 2023. Additionally, rice production area increased by 12 percent in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh compared to the same week in the previous year.While El Nino may influence the weather, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help mitigate its extreme effects. A positive IOD typically results in above-average rainfall in the Indian Subcontinent. However, the IOD remains neutral despite earlier predictions of a positive IOD event in July. Forecasts indicate that El Nino's impact will intensify in August, coupled with the potential break-monsoon situation, leading to uncertainty in rainfall levels.The forthcoming weeks will be decisive for rice production in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, as the region anticipates the monsoon's next phase and its impact on agriculture.
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