Climate change posing global food security risks

Farmers have been dependent on seasonal rains for cultivation for many generations. Nearly 40% of the nation's total food production comes from rainfed agriculture, which takes up about 51% of the net sown area (DoA, GoI). Rainfed agriculture is complex, highly diverse and risk prone. With threat of climate change looming large, the monsoon period and rainfall intensity have become erratic, resulting into woes of farmers, including fluctuations in crop production. As per the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, potato production in the current year is estimated to be decline to 53.60 mt from 56.17 mt last year. Major crops, including potatoes, were severely affected due to the unseasonal rainfall in November-December in 2021. The countrywide heatwave this year has also affected potato production. In May 2022, the decision to ban wheat exports came into effect amidst the Russia-Ukraine war to manage domestic wheat prices as the crops were affected this year.

The reasons for fluctuations in crop production in the country are - low rainfall, excessive rainfall, excessive moisture, insects on crops, unseasonal rains, floods, droughts, hail showers etc. Recently, the Global Food Policy Report: Climate Change & Food Systems, released by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) highlighted some alarming facts marking that India’s food production could decline by 16% and the risk of hunger could increase by 23% by 2030 due to climate change. 

The researchers evaluated the ongoing impacts of climate change on aggregate food production, food consumption, the net trade of food commodities, and the hunger risk population. The results conceived after the study predict that by 2023 about 73.9 million of the Indian population will face hunger, and if the climate change impacts kept rising at the current rate, the number could touch 90.6 million. The aggregate food production index, under similar conditions, would drop from 1.6 to 1.5, the report states.

For the last few years, the weather cycle has triggered a series of shocks and disturbing events, which has become challenging for the agriculture sector. Today, the increasing frequency of natural disasters like floods, cyclones and droughts in the country, would make it amply clear that India is one of the most affected countries by climate change. 

The Global Assessment Report (GAR2022) released by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) revealed an alarming possibility that the world could face about 560 disaster events annually, which is 1.5 per day by 2030. The report further adds that India’s average temperature will increase by 2.4 °C to 4.4 °C by 2100, and heat waves are expected to triple by 2100.

Climate change hampering global food production

The data released by the  International Food Policy Research Institute forecasts that global agriculture yields will be hampered due to the rising impacts of climate change, as 60% decline in food production is expected by 2050. It is anticipated by the researchers that due to these impacts on agricultural production, South Asia, West and Central Africa's meat production is anticipated to double by 2030, and triple by 2050. Food production is in the spotlight as both a cause of global warming and a crucial industry for mounting a climate change adaptation strategy because it is estimated that food systems account for more than a third of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that cause climate change. 

The IPCC’s special report on climate change and land food security predicts that food production will be increasingly affected by projected future climate change. Global crop and economic models project that due to the recurring impacts of climate change, prices of cereals will witness a rise of 1–29% in 2050. The rise in the cost of food supplies will affect consumers globally, the study adds. 

According to this study, recent global yields have been modulated by climate change, which has resulted in production losses. Adaptations made so far have not been enough to counteract the negative effects of climate change, especially at lower latitudes. The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that all countries have failed to rein in their carbon emissions.  The report suggests that because of this, climate change is having an all-around effect. This has affected the productivity of workers working outside, including in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, and tourism. 

It is estimated that by 2050, about 183 million people in low-income countries will be malnourished. ING Bank economist Samuel Abbotton says the report suggests more investment will be needed to help combat and tackle climate change. The increase in temperature will affect the productivity of the farmers and the labourers working in the fields, and this will also reduce their earnings due to the fact that they will move to other areas.  This will lead to negative consequences like reduced food productivity and an increase in food prices. The study adds that all these incidents will push the world towards poverty and economic and social inequality.

Way forward

To save Indian agriculture from the ill effects of climate change, we have to use our resources judiciously and by adopting the Indian philosophy of life as emphasized in the LIFE movement launched by India. Now there is a dire need to give prominence to eco-friendly methods of farming by which the productivity of our soil and conservation of natural resources can be ensured. The Global Food Policy Report highlights the urgency of investment in research and development to boost sustainable food production. In order to accelerate technical innovation projects, the public investment must be doubled from the current budget, and at least $15 billion should be invested in the food systems in low- and middle-income countries.

Designing Adaptive Systems to Build Resilience to Climate Change is another aspect to focus on to meet the desired objective. The International Food Policy Research Institute suggests that ‘Social protection’ strategies are needed to directly aid the local community engaged in agricultural practices. These strategies “support adaption to more frequent extreme weather events and can support mitigation.”