According to a recent study by agricultural economists and scientists at Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Punjab's maize and cotton yields will decrease by 13% and 11%, respectively, as a result of climate change by 2050. About 12% of the nation's total cereal production is produced in Punjab.
In a study that was published in the Mausam journal of the India Meteorological Department earlier this month, the effects of climate change on five significant crops- rice, maize, cotton, wheat, and potato- in the agrarian state were projected using rainfall and temperature data gathered between 1986 and 2020.
The researchers gathered climate information from five weather observatories operated by the Punjab Agricultural University, including Ludhiana, Patiala, Faridkot, Bathinda, and SBS Nagar.
The researchers, agricultural economist Sunny Kumar, scientist Baljinder Kaur Sidana, and PhD student Smily Thakur claim that long-term changes in climatic variables demonstrate that the temperature increase rather than the altered rainfall pattern is the primary cause of the changes.
"One of the most intriguing results is the correlation between changes in minimum temperature and changes in mean temperature across all growing seasons," according to the report, which indicates that the minimum temperature has been trending upward.
Productivity Decreasing With Increasing Temperature
The yield of rice, maize, and cotton is negatively impacted by a rise in the minimum temperature. On the other hand, a minimum temperature that is too high was found to be beneficial for wheat and potato yields.
The Kharif and Rabi seasons will have a wide range of climate-related effects on crops. According to the report, maize yield would decrease by 13% by the year 2050, cotton yield would decrease by roughly 11%, and rice yield would decrease by roughly 1%.
By 2080, the effects would have accumulated. The yield loss for maize will rise from 13 to 24 percent, for cotton from 11 to 24 percent, and for rice from 1 to 2 percent, respectively. The yield response for wheat and potatoes in 2050 would be essentially the same. With a significant change in climate by 2080, wheat and potato yields will be up by about 1% each, according to the report.
The researchers concluded that the farming community faces a threat to its ability to provide for itself due to the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production. The results support the idea that the climate scenario for the future is not particularly friendly.
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