The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has urged the world to prepare for the development of El Nino, a weather phenomenon associated with severe droughts in parts of southern Asia, Indonesia, and Australia, as well as extreme rain.
El Nino conditions are known to shift rainfall patterns across the world, which could impact India's agriculture and economy, as the monsoon season brings about 70% of the country's annual rainfall. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a “normal” monsoon at 96% of the long-period average (LPA), although WMO warns that the likelihood of El Nino developing this monsoon season is increasing.
A map issued by the WMO shows most parts of north, northeast, northwest, and central India experiencing dry periods during the June to September monsoon season. It shows largely wet months during the October to December northeast monsoon season in the peninsular region. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation, raises rural incomes, and helps inject demand into the economy. The WMO warned that El Nino might bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Nina-related impacts but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events.
The WMO added that El Nino would have the opposite impact on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world to the long-running La Nina and likely fuel higher global temperatures. La Nina has now ended after persisting for three years, and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina). WMO said there is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Nino during May-July 2023, increasing to about 70% in June to August and 80% between July and September.
WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas warned that the development of an El Nino would most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records. “We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Nina for the past three years, and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase.” The effect on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll said that pre-monsoon temperatures over the Indian landmass could be one of several factors affecting the monsoon onset dynamics. “I will be more concerned about the teleconnections with El Nino during the monsoon season.” Koll added that an El Nino can enhance the tropospheric temperature gradient by increasing the temperatures over Eurasia and thereby weaken the monsoon winds. “Even though land surface temperatures cool with rains, the [latent] heat is released to the troposphere/atmosphere over the land. So, land surface temperatures alone do not drive the monsoon.”
In conclusion, the world should prepare for the possible development of El Nino, which could have adverse effects on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world. While IMD has forecasted a "normal" monsoon, WMO warns that the likelihood of El Nino developing this monsoon season is increasing, which could impact India's agriculture and economy. The WMO also warned that El Nino would most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records, which would be most apparent in 2024.
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