According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), an alarming 78% of districts in India are currently experiencing arid conditions, which may have adverse effects on summer crops. Out of the approximately 691 districts mapped, only 116 were classified as non-arid, while the remaining 539 districts faced varying degrees of aridity, ranging from mild to severe. Unfortunately, data for 36 districts was unavailable at the time of reporting.
The IMD's aridity anomaly outlook index reveals the water stress that growing plants endure due to a lack of available moisture, encompassing both rainfall and soil moisture. Deviations from the normal aridity levels indicate water shortages compared to long-term climatic values. Positive anomalies indicate more arid or drought-like conditions than average and are classified as mild, moderate, or severe. Conversely, negative or zero anomalies suggest less arid or drought conditions than normal.
The affected regions include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Assam, and Chhattisgarh, where nearly all districts are under mild or moderate arid conditions. On the other hand, severe arid conditions prevail in around 46 districts, primarily in Odisha and West Bengal. The qualitative retardation in plant growth due to aridity may lead to poor crop yields, highlighting the need for appropriate irrigation scheduling to mitigate water scarcity.
The onset of the southwest monsoon season, crucial for alleviating dry conditions, was predicted to occur over Kerala by June 4, with a model error of +/- four days. However, the specter of an impending El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean raises concerns about its potential impact on rainfall onset and distribution throughout the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States has indicated an over 80% chance of El Niño development in May-June-July, which escalates to nearly 90% for the subsequent June-July-August period.
Summer crops in the Indian subcontinent, grown between the Rabi (winter) and Kharif (monsoon) seasons, are at risk due to the prevailing aridity. Crops like pulses, oilseeds, and nutritional cereals typically begin sowing in late February or early March and are harvested by May-June. The scarcity of water caused by aridity, compounded by the potential adverse effects of El Niño, poses a serious threat to these crops and may result in diminished yields.
In conclusion, the majority of India's districts are currently grappling with arid conditions, endangering summer crops. The severity of aridity ranges from mild to severe across different regions, potentially leading to reduced plant growth and poor crop yields. Additionally, the looming El Niño event further exacerbates concerns about the onset and distribution of rainfall during the critical monsoon season. Timely measures, including appropriate irrigation scheduling, will be crucial to mitigate the impact of water scarcity and safeguard the agricultural sector in India.
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