A groundbreaking analysis conducted by the Earth Commission group of scientists reveals that human activity has pushed the planet into a dangerous state in seven out of eight indicators of planetary safety and justice. The study goes beyond the well-known issue of climate disruption and presents alarming evidence of growing crises in water availability, nutrient loading, ecosystem maintenance, and aerosol pollution. These threats not only destabilize life-support systems but also exacerbate social inequality.
Published in Nature, this report represents the most comprehensive effort to date in combining indicators of planetary health with measures of human well-being. The Earth Commission, formed by numerous leading research institutions worldwide, aims for this analysis to serve as the scientific foundation for the next generation of sustainability targets and practices. It emphasizes the need to expand the current focus on climate change to encompass other indices and address environmental justice. The commission hopes that cities and businesses will adopt these targets as a means to measure the impact of their activities.
The study defines a series of "safe and just" benchmarks for the planet, analogous to vital signs for the human body. These benchmarks include indicators such as water flow, phosphorus use, and land conversion. They are based on a synthesis of previous studies conducted by universities and UN science groups, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
The situation is dire in almost every category. For climate, the current global target is to limit global heating to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, the Earth Commission argues that this level is already dangerous, with extreme heat, droughts, and floods negatively impacting many people. They propose a safer climate target of 1 degree Celsius, which would require significant efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Stabilizing the climate is also contingent on protecting ecosystems. To achieve this, the commission suggests that 50-60% of the world should be predominantly natural ecosystems. However, the reality is that only 45-50% of the planet currently maintains intact ecosystems. In areas altered by human activity, such as farms and cities, at least 20-25% of the land should be dedicated to semi-natural habitats to preserve ecosystem services. Unfortunately, about two-thirds of altered landscapes fail to meet this goal.
The study also addresses aerosol pollution, which arises from sources like vehicle emissions, factories, and power plants. At a global level, the report focuses on minimizing the imbalance of aerosol concentrations between the northern and southern hemispheres, which can disrupt weather patterns. Locally, it sets a boundary of 15 micrograms per cubic meter as the mean annual exposure to PM2.5 particulate matter, a critical threshold to protect lung and heart health. This issue also intersects with social justice, as marginalized communities often suffer the most from poor air quality. Regarding water resources, the study establishes a benchmark that no more than 20% of river and stream flow should be impeded in any catchment area to avoid water quality decline and habitat loss. However, hydroelectric dams, drainage systems, and construction have already exceeded this boundary on one-third of the world's land. Groundwater systems face a similar crisis, with 47% of river basins depleting faster than they can replenish. This issue is particularly prevalent in densely populated areas such as Mexico City and regions of intensive agriculture like the North China Plain.
Nutrient management is another critical concern. Wealthier nations tend to apply excessive nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, leading to runoffs that cause harmful algal blooms and compromise water quality. Achieving global equity requires poorer nations to access more fertilizers while wealthier nations reduce surplus usage. The report establishes a "safe and just boundary" of a global nitrogen surplus of 61 million tonnes and a phosphorus surplus of approximately 6 million tonnes. The authors of the study acknowledge the grim diagnosis of the planet's health but emphasize that there is still hope for recovery. However, time is running out. They suggest that the existing policy framework, encompassing UN climate and biodiversity agreements, provides a means to return within safe boundaries. Nevertheless, individual consumption choices and lifestyle changes also play a crucial role in achieving sustainability. Alongside the implementation of remedies, a strong commitment to action is necessary to harness nature's regenerative powers.
Overall, the analysis underscores the urgent need to address the root causes of the planet's declining health, rather than solely focusing on mitigating symptoms. It calls for a holistic approach that combines scientific targets with individual and collective responsibility to bring about positive change.
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