Rising Heat Waves in India and Vulnerability to Climate Change

South Asia, particularly India, is increasingly being recognized as a global hotspot for climate change impacts, with heat waves becoming a major concern. In 2022, Pakistan, northwest, and northern India experienced the devastating effects of heat waves, followed by eastern and northeastern India and Bangladesh in 2023.

To protect children from extreme heat, several Indian states, including West Bengal, Maharashtra, Odisha, Tripura, and Meghalaya, temporarily closed schools. Other states like Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand adjusted school timings. The severity of the situation led to the extension of summer holidays in schools from Goa to Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand. Bangladesh also faced heat waves in April and June, resulting in power cuts and school closures.

The implications of such extreme heat events extend beyond the education sector. Heat waves have been shown to negatively impact crop production in India and Pakistan, contributing to a significant loss of productivity. Climate scientist Luke Parsons estimated that India alone could lose around 101 billion work hours per year, equivalent to approximately 23 million jobs lost, due to heat-related challenges. Research published in the journal Nature suggests that global warming of 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels could expose around 90 million people in India to its impacts. India and Nigeria, with the highest populations at risk, already show increased exposure to extreme heat, making them particularly vulnerable.

India has been experiencing record-breaking temperatures in recent years. December 2022 was the hottest December in 122 years, and February 2023 marked the hottest February since 1901, accompanied by numerous forest fires. The past fifteen years have witnessed the five warmest years on record in India, with 11 out of the 15 warmest years occurring between 2008 and 2022. Heat-related deaths in India have significantly increased, with statistics indicating a rise from 3,863 cases in 2001-2005 to 6,411 cases in 2011-2015. The impacts of heat waves are projected to escalate, with a McKinsey report warning that by 2050, India could experience heat waves surpassing the survivability limit for healthy individuals even in shaded areas. Outdoor working hours lost are expected to increase by 15 percent by 2030.

Addressing these challenges necessitates long-term policy interventions at the government level. Heat waves in India are predicted to become more widespread and last longer, particularly during June and July, coinciding with the monsoon season. While the highest temperatures may not increase significantly, the duration and extent of heat waves are likely to expand, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone areas. Marginalized populations, such as street vendors, construction and farm workers, and traffic police, are most vulnerable to the impacts of heat waves. They often lack access to consistent electricity and cooling at home, limiting their ability to cope with prolonged heat stress.

Reports emphasize the importance of vulnerability assessments and tailored interventions to address the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Implementing early warning systems, heat action plans, and urban planning strategies, along with providing access to cooling and clean drinking water, can mitigate heat-related risks. Successful examples, like heat action plans in Gujarat's Ahmedabad and parts of Odisha, have demonstrated a decrease in heat-related fatalities. However, the effectiveness of current heat action plans is hindered by a lack of comprehensive vulnerability assessment frameworks, inadequate funding, weak legal foundations, and insufficient transparency. To protect the most vulnerable, improvements are needed in identifying and targeting specific groups in heat action plans. In conclusion, India must take significant steps to protect its population from the escalating frequency and intensity of heat waves, which are becoming the new normal due to climate change.