According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal demand is expected to fall by 2026, despite reaching a new high in output this year.
According to the estimate, which was released on December 15, global coal demand will climb by 1.4% in 2023, reaching 8.5 billion tons for the first time. However, regional variances are apparent, with the European Union and the United States both forecasting a 20% reduction in demand. In contrast, demand in India is predicted to climb by 8% and in China by 5% due to increased electrical demand and lower hydropower generation.
The IEA blames the expected drop in coal demand to increased renewable energy capacity and global climate changes. The transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions, accompanied by increasing rainfall, is projected to occur between 2024 and 2026, resulting in enhanced hydropower output. Furthermore, the deployment of low-cost solar photovoltaics and moderate increases in nuclear energy, particularly in China, India, and the European Union, will contribute to a decline in coal-fired generation beginning in 2024.
China currently accounts for slightly more than half of global coal demand. As the country grows its renewable energy generation, coal demand is predicted to fall in 2024 and plateau by 2026. The IEA predicts a 2.3% global reduction in coal demand by 2026. Despite the anticipated decline, worldwide coal consumption is predicted to stay above 8 billion tons until 2026. Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, stressed the importance of increased efforts to meet international climate targets, adding that a tipping point for coal is on the horizon.
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